The talent a roster signed vs what it did.
Every FBS team's recruiting talent (the 4-year composite, and its national rank that season) lined up against its actual record. The gap is the story · who outran the roster they had, and who left blue-chip talent on the field. National rank, record, and the sample behind each, on every team.
Talent is a leading indicator and records drift back toward the roster. In our point-in-time test (2020·2025, n>150 each side), teams that outran their recruiting talent fell about 15 win-percentage points the next season, and the ones that underachieved rose about as much. So these gaps tend to close next year. That is a direction the data leans, not a guaranteed pick and not a bet.
| Team | Talent rank | Composite | Record | Win% | Gap (pts) ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&MSEC | #3 / 138 | 81.6 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -54 |
| MarylandBig Ten | #22 / 138 | 73.6 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -51 |
| Georgia TechACC | #38 / 138 | 71.3 | 2-7 (9g) | 22% | -51 |
| ColoradoBig 12 | #24 / 138 | 73.0 | 4-6 (10g) | 40% | -43 |
| CharlotteAAC | #67 / 138 | 67.6 | 1-8 (9g) | 11% | -41 |
| Florida StateACC | #14 / 138 | 77.4 | 5-5 (10g) | 50% | -41 |
| FloridaSEC | #8 / 138 | 79.4 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -39 |
| RutgersBig Ten | #55 / 138 | 69.6 | 2-7 (9g) | 22% | -38 |
| VanderbiltSEC | #25 / 138 | 72.9 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -38 |
| Penn StateBig Ten | #12 / 138 | 77.9 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -36 |
| OklahomaSEC | #13 / 138 | 77.8 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -36 |
| Michigan StateBig Ten | #45 / 138 | 70.4 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -35 |
| Mississippi StateSEC | #30 / 138 | 72.5 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -34 |
| MichiganBig Ten | #15 / 138 | 76.7 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -34 |
| Ohio StateBig Ten | #1 / 138 | 83.3 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -33 |
| AuburnSEC | #17 / 138 | 76.2 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -33 |
| StanfordACC | #33 / 138 | 71.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -32 |
| TCUBig 12 | #35 / 138 | 71.7 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -31 |
| UCFBig 12 | #21 / 138 | 73.9 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -30 |
| KansasBig 12 | #52 / 138 | 70.0 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -29 |
| Boston CollegeACC | #37 / 138 | 71.3 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -29 |
| Kansas StateBig 12 | #39 / 138 | 71.2 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -28 |
| OregonBig Ten | #9 / 138 | 79.1 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -27 |
| South CarolinaSEC | #10 / 138 | 78.7 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -27 |
| ArkansasSEC | #56 / 138 | 69.6 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -27 |
| LSUSEC | #11 / 138 | 78.5 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -26 |
| NC StateACC | #43 / 138 | 70.4 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -25 |
| WashingtonBig Ten | #28 / 138 | 72.7 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -25 |
| North CarolinaACC | #29 / 138 | 72.6 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -24 |
| Washington StatePac-12 | #90 / 138 | 65.1 | 1-8 (9g) | 11% | -24 |
| RiceAAC | #92 / 138 | 64.9 | 1-8 (9g) | 11% | -22 |
| ClemsonACC | #16 / 138 | 76.3 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -22 |
| TexasSEC | #2 / 138 | 83.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | -21 |
| Ole MissSEC | #18 / 138 | 75.8 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -21 |
| NebraskaBig Ten | #34 / 138 | 71.7 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -20 |
| AlabamaSEC | #4 / 138 | 81.6 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | -20 |
| AkronMAC | #97 / 138 | 64.4 | 1-9 (10g) | 10% | -20 |
| MissouriSEC | #20 / 138 | 74.2 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -19 |
| Southern MissSun Belt | #68 / 138 | 67.5 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -18 |
| Iowa StateBig 12 | #53 / 138 | 69.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -18 |
| WisconsinBig Ten | #23 / 138 | 73.1 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -17 |
| PurdueBig Ten | #70 / 138 | 67.3 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -16 |
| Virginia TechACC | #26 / 138 | 72.8 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -15 |
| BaylorBig 12 | #27 / 138 | 72.7 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -14 |
| SyracuseACC | #58 / 138 | 69.2 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -14 |
| TulaneAAC | #63 / 138 | 68.4 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -10 |
| MinnesotaBig Ten | #48 / 138 | 70.1 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -10 |
| USCBig Ten | #19 / 138 | 75.4 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | -9 |
| GeorgiaSEC | #5 / 138 | 80.4 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | -8 |
| MiamiACC | #6 / 138 | 80.1 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | -7 |
| Sam HoustonC-USA | #113 / 138 | 63.1 | 1-8 (9g) | 11% | -7 |
| Colorado StatePac-12 | #83 / 138 | 66.1 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -7 |
| Notre DameIndependent | #7 / 138 | 79.6 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | -7 |
| PittsburghACC | #47 / 138 | 70.2 | 6-4 (10g) | 60% | -6 |
| Northern IllinoisMountain West | #130 / 138 | 60.8 | 0-9 (9g) | 0% | -6 |
| Arizona StateBig 12 | #54 / 138 | 69.6 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -6 |
| VirginiaACC | #74 / 138 | 66.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -2 |
| LouisvilleACC | #44 / 138 | 70.4 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -2 |
| TennesseeSEC | #31 / 138 | 72.3 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | 0 |
This is talent intelligence, not a betting edge. The recruiting composite does not beat the spread · we tested it and it lands near a coin flip against the number in every bucket. What it does do is show where a roster's talent and its record pulled apart, and that gap tends to regress. Every number ships with its sample (games behind the record, programs behind the rank). Research, not advice.