The week 1 NFL schedule. Our ATS pick and our total pick on every game we called.

Six columns, the same on every card. Kickoff. The matchup with the market spread on each team and the market total with its book. Our number, which is the model's read and is context, not the call. The ATS pick and the total pick, both stated the same way with the tier they carry, the panel vote behind them. Then the Details link. A column with no call in it says No pick, because an absence is a result too and we would rather print it than leave a hole.

The line is the latest capture per game from our odds feed, book named on every row. Our number is the EL NFL Rating v3 difference plus 2.122 points of home field, shown when both teams carry a rating (0 at a neutral site: the London, Munich, Madrid, Paris, Rio, Mexico City and Melbourne games list a designated home team but nobody is at home, and the card says so). That home field figure is not a guess: it is the 2.122 intercept of the EL NFL Rating v3 second-stage margin model (docs/el-nfl-rating-v3.md), and the per-team home field variant was tested and rejected in that same document for making out of sample error worse. That number is context, never the call. The calls come from our analyst panel: three seats work every game and the synthesis is the ATS pick and the total pick printed on the card, each with the tier the panel earned and the vote behind it. A tier is how decisively the panel agreed, never a win probability. Where the market has moved off the number we took, the pick says both, ours first, so the reader knows which number is ours. Rest days come straight from the schedule and are free context on every row. 3 picks go free every week, released at 9:05am ET on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday and public from that stamp on; every other pick and the line movement open with membership. Early in the week nothing has dropped yet, and the board says so rather than promoting a stand-in. Every card is the whole read. The Details link opens the full game page: the panel's written case, the matchup context, the line history, and every trend on the game.